Ride the wave or Drown

 

 

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is the hot buzz topic of the day.  ChatGPT is the new wunderkind widget, that helps school kids write essays (i.e. cheat), create online new articles, whip out marketing collateral in seconds, and more. GPT4 portends to be the edge of a whole new frontier.

 

Indeed, new frontiers can lead to whole new territories and civilizations.  However, they are often fraught with hidden dangers.

 

But this is normal.  Every paradigm shift of technological evolution has brought forth blessings and curses.  The industrial revolution moved society from an agrarian focus to big cities with factories and mills.  Society changed.

 

The information age changed the world again when knowledge became digital instead of paper and ink, stored on silicon and transported via wires or radio signals.

 

Then came the Internet that once again changed everything – at least in terms of network connectivity, spreading out from isolated corporate bastions out to individual hand-held wireless devices.  Ever noticed the waves of migrants flowing into the United States, supposedly all impoverished desperate souls, all seem to be carrying cell phones?  Amazing, right?

 

Even COVID demonstrated that people could do their jobs from anywhere, and the era of officed enterprises was, for the most part, revealed to be an incredible waste of money.  The virtual office concept also opened up access to a global labor pool, not just those people that live in your town.

 

The next great wave of change is upon us: AI

 

Doomsayers say AI will put everyone out of work, become sentient and tyrannical, take over the world and kill us all – in a realization of the Terminator myth.

 

Best case, it will be a new benevolent servant that eliminates lower-level tasks and frees humans up to enjoy life more.

 

The truth, more likely than not, will inevitably lie somewhere in the middle of those two extremes.

 

AI can surely shoulder the burden of many existing tasks currently borne by humans.  But it also has the capacity of get out of hand if not kept on a tight leash.  And that concern is valid, if for no other reason, than machines are manifestations of pure logic and mathematics, with no inherent underpinning of ethics, moral judgement, compassion, mercy, nor true imagination.  Those are God-gifted human attributes, which at best can only be mimicked to some finite degree.

 

AI will never eschew evil, unless programmed to do so – especially if evil serves its directives and goals.  Notwithstanding these moral concerns, AI is coming, and will do so in a big way.

 

Indeed, there are many jobs that AI will be able to do better, cheaper, and faster than humans – the same way the assembly line and robotics improved manufacturing.  Many news articles are coming out right now exploring that idea, and everyone should wisely take heed.  If I were in any of the following jobs, I might want to think about expanding my skill sets and career opportunities.

 

The one job that really caught my eye the most was: Software Developer.

 

I’ve been in the software engineering business for many, many years.  “Coders are essential to the information economy!”  And mules and oxen were essential to farming until the tractor was invented.

 

If I was a Business Analyst or System Architect, I might not be too worried.  Most software projects are still going to need that human mind to creatively solve business problems.  But a lot of software automation needs are pretty cut and dry – “commodity-level” needs, you might say.  You know, things like setting up an e-commerce site to sell products, or an App to manage inventory, creating a new social network, or even setting up a simple information website.

 

Will all programmers become obsolete.  Of course not.  Then again, mules and oxen aren’t extinct yet either.  Some higher-level programmer may still be needed for specialized tasks.

 

Nevertheless, there’s coming a day very soon when you’ll be able to log into “My-New-AI-Website.com”, and then talk (yes talk, via Natural Language Processing) to an App and tell it what you want, and within a few seconds, it appears – with a new URL vetted and registered, a logo created, SEO already completed, an SSL certificate registered, marketing materials posted, a blog launched, a merchant account set up for credit card payments – the works.  And it only costs a few dollars a  month.

 

In that world, something far beyond the simplicity of WordPress, how many web developers are still going to be needed?  UI/UX designers?  You do realize AI graphic design is already a thing, right?

 

How about the world of cybersecurity?  Most security defenses are a function of known controls and audit points that need to be continuously monitored with specific intervention methods and protocols applied when something is out of compliance or any type of anomalous or malicious behavior is detected.  That whole world is ripe for complete AI-based automation.  And then add some Machine Learning (ML) to all of that, and your defenses are getting smarter and smarter over time.  Goodbye most cyber security vendors.

 

But AI isn’t just going to impact the IT world.  Are you a law clerk at a law firm whose job it is to research case law, create logical and persuasive case arguments and prepare legal briefs?  You’re toast.  Granted, AI may not be able to argue a case before a jury with the passion of an A-List trial lawyer, but the very case itself that the talented lawyer is arguing may have been completely generated by an AI App.

 

Accounting and Finance?  That one is even easier.  You think TurboTax took a bite out of the accounting business?  Wait till AI can digest all current tax law, all prior case precedents, and be able to do the taxes for any individual or business entity in any country or combination of countries – and do it in seconds for pennies.

 

How about EdTech?

 

The world of teaching and training is going to be upended by AI.  And that isn’t just for the adult or professional world; but we’re also talking K through 12 and college!  Goodbye teachers, and more beneficially, teachers’ unions.

 

In a few years, all that might be needed could class monitors/proctors – if classrooms at all are still needed any longer.  Home schooling can become a function of children being taught by the best minds throughout all of history.  Imagine a deep-fake avatar of Albert Einstein explaining his Theory of Relativity.  Or better yet, being able to ask Professor Einstein questions and have him answer them in real-time (in your preferred language!).

 

Indeed, the social elements of classroom education would of necessity have to change.  But is that a bad thing?  Aren’t there social activity alternatives?  Wouldn’t new ones emerge to fill any voids?

 

But what about group learning?

 

Well, group learning could still happen.  You’ve surely participated in plenty of group Zoom/Webex/MS-Teams/etc. calls.  What if one of the attendees in the group call, the teacher, were an AI avatar?  So what.  Better yet, what if more than one of the participants were AI avatars – like the greatest minds from all time – scientists, philosophers, kings, conquerors, writers, musicians, and more.  Just imagine.

 

Do you want Jimi Hendrix or Eddie Van Halen to teach you how to play lead guitar?  AI could make that happen.  Or Mozart to give your child piano lessons?

 

Okay, back to the business world.

 

I can imagine that AI will have its greatest impact in the general business world, i.e. in terms of automating almost everything a business needs in order to run day-to-day.

 

The eternal dilemma of the entrepreneurial world is that plenty of clever souls come up with a new idea of a product or a service.  This is especially true in the technology world.  However, very few brilliant technologists also happen to be brilliant businesspeople.  Thus, when they seek investment for their new startup, a VC’s top concern is usually to see that a competent management team is in place  – and if not, and they like the business idea – the investors will often provide competent managers of their own choosing.

 

Why?  Because a great new company isn’t necessarily a commercially viable company.

 

Lord know, many very formidable commercial companies have been very successful with inferior products and services – of which many examples are likely to be occurring to you right now.  Yes, the product and service is very important.  But the company built around that product and/or service is just as important if not more so.

 

Now imagine you’re an entrepreneur with a great new idea for a new product or service.  To fully develop that product/service, get to a prototype, find some beta adopters to test it, craft a Go-to-Market strategy, and launch the business in a competitive marketplace, you calculate you’re going to need a tidy sum of investment.

 

You need software developers.  You need sales and marketing people.  You need HR and Accounting and Finance.  You’re going to need a CRM system, and maybe an ERP system.  At a bare minimum, your calculations tell you this is new venture going cost a couple of million dollars, and probably take a couple of years, best case, before you ever even hope to break even.  That’s the well-traveled road.

 

Sure, early adopters who are willing to pay might help you bootstrap a startup, whereby going to Angels or VCs could possibly be bypassed to some degree, if not entirely.  But you know what can’t be bypassed?  All those things you needed $2 million to pay for: the product development, the marketing, the sales, the back office, the HR, the accounting and finance systems.  Those needs are still there, even if you have revenue.

 

But what if – now use your imaginations here – there was a “system”, an online “service” perhaps, that did all of those internal functions for you, let’s say at 10% of the normal cost, with zero implementation expense or time needed.  Thus, $2 million in anticipated investment needed becomes only $200,000, and it’s all running Day-1.  That $200K might not be as hard to come by.

 

Or, what if in time, that cost became only 1% of the normal cost burden, or only $20,000, or less than $2,000 a month – less than the cost of a single employee?  Imagine how many new business ideas could then become a reality that are blocked today but for lack of the wherewithal to properly launch those ideas as viable new commercial businesses.

 

The world would change.  And it’s about to.

 

Thus, it’s no great feat of prophesy or prognostication to assert that AI is about to change everything in a big way.  That’s a given.  In light of that fact, you now have the choice to either ride that wave like a champion surfer to success, or to be deluged by it.  You need to be asking yourself, in the context of your business: “How can AI help me, as well as how can it potentially hurt me?”  The answers to both questions can simultaneously be true; it need not be just one or the other.